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Case Study:
Albany, New York
Methodology
Land Use Model Overview
The CDTC Land Use Model was developed from available Lowry-Garin models such as those represented in the Highway Land Use Forecasting Model
developed by Alan Horowitz. These models distribute regional employment and population among analysis zones, based on characteristics of the zones such as accessibility. CDTC's model differs from standard land use models in three respects:
- It uses measures of developmental attractiveness for residential development by zone that are derived from a multiple linear regression analysis of residential growth patterns in the Capital District between 1970 and 1990.
- It operates as a "marginal" model, rather than an abstract equilibrium model. That is, the model fixes in place the vast majority of dwelling units and a large portion of existing employment. The model allocates only the region's growth and a small portion of existing households and employment. (The fraction of existing land use re-allocated is based on the assumed likelihood that dwelling units or employment will be replaced over the time period; a larger fraction is assumed for employment than for dwelling units.)
- It is calibrated to Capital District Regional Planning Commission (CDRPC) regional forecasts of households and employment for the year 2015. That is, assuming constant travel times, property taxes, and property values, the model assumes that CDRPC forecasts by zone are correct.
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